A little to add from my experience working in the industry... Keep in mind that the "revenue management" function is undertaken by a human. In a large, upscale hotel (4*) this is typically an individual whose only job is maximizing the revenue to the hotel (Revenue Manager). At a smaller, lower class hotel (say a 2*) this is often one of many duties of the General Manager or perhaps the Front Office Manager/Assistant General Manager. Loading inventory into priceline, then, is primarily a function of what that individual person thinks will most likely maximize revenue for a given date. This can change based on time frame, particular dates, and unforeseen circumstances. But above all, it is based on the opinion and judgement of that person, perhaps with the input of the rest of the leadership team. Also, keep in mind, this person sets not only priceline inventory, but also the rack rates for the hotel and the availability of other discounted rates, such as AAA or Entertainment Card. Some data sources this person will often use: - Last year's results for the same date and season - Their hotel's negotiated room blocks and expected yields - Calendars of events in town - The target parameters set by management, such as Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) - Renovations happening at the hotel - and their likely impact on bookings and number of rooms available - Weather reports Some example scenarios: 1) There are certain dates that, a year in advance, a revenue manager will know with near certainty will be revenue disasters. For example, an airport hotel in a warm weather region on Christmas (no business travelers, no one stuck due to weather). Or a tourist hotel on a Tuesday night in the Northeast in February (too cold). In these scenarios, it would make sense to load many rooms as early as possible at a low rate, to secure the few travelers available as early as possible. 2) A prime weekend in a busy tourist travel season. In this case, the revenue manager would likely set the retail rate high in advance and re-evaluate as the arrival date gets closer. They would also typically impose a two night stay minimum for Saturday (to force arrivals on Friday rather than Saturday morning). As the arrival date gets closer and closer, the revenue manager will evaluate both the quantity and quality of bookings, and perhaps release a little additional priceline inventory to fill in the gaps. Keep in mind, they will often intentionally overbook the hotel if there are many cancellable reservations made well in advance - assuming some people have forgotten they made the reservations or will cancel at the last minute. 3) There is a large convention in town. Even though the hotel may offer a special rate for the convention, it is uncertain how many will attend. Business travelers tend to book closer to the arrival date than leisure travelers. There is also higher uncertainty - travel plans may change at the last minute, especially with a convention considered "optional" compared to other work responsibilities. Depending on how low occupancy looks, the revenue manager might release priceline inventory - but would probably be more likely to release rack rate, retail inventory, looking to capture non-convention travelers who are faced with many sold out hotels. The revenue manager is monitoring scenarios like these for every arrival date, months in advance. He or she will often make changes on a weekly or daily basis in how many rooms are available and the room rates. So the bottom line is, aside from dates that are likely disasters for occupancy, it's nearly impossible to tell if booking early or later is better. Since the specific inventory and rate levels depend on the revenue manager's style, there's no clear way to know when inventory will be loaded to priceline unless you study that person's track record and somehow gather all of the same information he or she uses. Given that, thereuare is probably right. Book a cancellable backup reservation then begin bidding as early (and consistently) as you comfortably can, for your best chance at saving money. Also, for the sake of the revenue manager and the probability of priceline inventory becoming available, cancel that backup reservation as soon as you win. :)
