SFO to HNL, 7/5-7/10/2006. Bidding Assistance Request

[cchsu98]

Hello thereuarel or Whomever Is Kind Enough to Help Me, I'd like some help on bidding a flight from SFO to HNL.

Travel Dates: Wed 7/5/06 - Mon 7/10/06

Check Websites:

Airtran - does not fly to HNL

AA - $695 (fare only)

ATA - $630

Continental - $1460

NWA - $978

SWA - no space available

US Air - $735

JetBlue - does not fly to HNL

Frontier - does not fly to HNL

Orbitz - Hawaiian Air. $521 + $40 (tax) = $561 (SFO>HNL)

Expedia - $494, but there are 2 connections: SFO to LAX to KOA to HNL. Although it is the cheapest, I don

[thereuare]

You can't "force" the itinerary as you suggest above. You agree to at least one connection, if the other itinerary is availalbe priceline will oftten come back and say "we found a flight but it has 2 connections, would you like to accept it" (or something like that). I don't think Hawaiian Air participates with priceline (i'm not sure of this) so your desired route above on HA may not even be available.

Before suggesting a strategy....

We are now affiliates of Hawaiian Air so please use our links if you book direct thru them. They are currently showing non-stop flights from SFO-->HNL on the days you want for $459+$20tax. (doublecheck to make sure you see this too)

So given the non-stop flights at this low price, would you want to adjust your maximum bid? I would think knowing your flight times and guaranteeing non-stop flights is worth something... for example, i wouldn't think you'd want to bid $440 (saving $20) and end up with poor flight times and a connection.

[cchsu98]

Thereuare, thank you for your quick reply.

First, in regarding to "forcing" Priceline to give me an itinerary, perhaps "force" is not the right word. I was hoping that I could specify my parameters in such a way that the itinerary that matched my parameters would also be the itinerary that Priceline would choose to give me. I will re-read your original response to this point, but in light of this new thought of trying to "lead" Priceline to give me the itinerary I want (not "force"), do you think this could work? Have you seen this done before?

Second, thanks for the tip that Hawaiian Air might not parcipate with PL. I had not thought of that possibility.

Third, regarding your affiliation with Hawaiian Air, I would not mind using your links if I book through them. I do have 1 question though: if I book through you, can I still use my Hawaiian Air Miles membership to get the discount associated with it?

Fourth, when you suggest adjusting my maximum bid of $440, are you asking if I want to raise my max bid to $450, for example, to try to get the nonstop HA flight (assuming they participate with PL)?

Behind that question is this question: is one not able to save very much using Priceline anymore? What are the discounts you often see when people use PL? Is 5% or 10% more realistic, not 20% or 30%? (Or maybe 5-10% is more realistic for me given that I'm trying to book a flight less than 7 days before it happens?) I would appreciate any thoughts you could share on the realistic discount I could get- they will help me make my expectations more realistic.

If I could not save at least 10%, then I would probably not use Priceline and would book directly (b/c as you say, having the knowledge and certainty of when I will be flying IS worth something) . Do you think I might be able to get a 10% discount?

And thanks for your patience with all my questions. I studied econ in college, and I guess those analytical optimizing skills are taking over! =p

Any thoughts (and booking strategy) you can share would be appreciated,

Chee Chee

[thereuare]

I was hoping that I could specify my parameters in such a way that the itinerary that matched my parameters would also be the itinerary that Priceline would choose to give me.

Nope. The only edge you have is if they offer a you a counter-offer, then often you can figure out if the offer is for a non-stop or connecting flight.

Regarding your affiliation with Hawaiian Air, I would not mind using your links if I book through them. I do have 1 question though: if I book through you, can I still use my Hawaiian Air Miles membership to get the discount associated with it?

It's just like booking directly thru their site... because you are. Our Hawaiian Air links takes you directly to their site... only difference is that they give us credit for refering you there (which happens automatically when you click our link).

When you suggest adjusting my maximum bid of $440, are you asking if I want to raise my max bid to $450, for example, to try to get the nonstop HA flight (assuming they participate with PL)?

No, i'm suggesting that you may want to lower your maximum bid. Since the non-stop flights can be had for $458+$20 (did you doublecheck on their site... i only checked for one passenger so there is a slight chance i'm getting pricing for the last 'cheap seat' and you get higher prices if you're looking for multiple tickets... although i doubt it, but it did happen to me once on a different airline, so it's always a possibility). Assuming that you also see the $458 fare (w/o taxes) then you would want to lower your maximum bid; as you elude in your latest post, you would want to save at least 10%, so does that mean you would want to lower you maximum bid to $420? (or some other amount if you actually wanted more/less of a discount to make the 'opaque' worthwhile)

Behind that question is this question: is one not able to save very much using Priceline anymore?

The savings are certainly there, but not so much for airfare as they are for other producs (hotels offer the greatest savings, with car rentals next, followed by airfare). But as you mention your econ background, remember that everything in business is cyclical, so one day this 'savings hierarchy' may change :)

So i think your next step is to confirm that you also see the same price as we do above for Hawaiian Air, then let us know your maximum bid, and we'll be in a position to suggest a strategy to follow.

[cchsu98]

Hello Thereuare,

Thanks for your reply and taking the time to address each of my (many) points. I appreciate it!

So, I checked on HawaiianAir.com. Yes, the $458 + 20 fare is still there. (And yes, I only want to book a flight for 1 adult, FYI.)

In my 2nd post, I said I'd like to save at least 10% b/c I didn't know if it was reasonable to expect more. However, if possible, I would like to save as much as we think is realistic. So, when you make your bidding recommendations, could you keep this in mind? (In other words, if I can save more than 10%, I don't want to settle for 10%! =p)

Here is a schedule of discounted fares:

10% off $458 = $412

20% off = $366

30% off = $321

40% off = $275

Which fare do you think I should start with? Of course, I'd like to start with the 40% off, but this may not be realistic. Please advise.

Also, if possible, I'd like to make a bid that would allow me to get a counter offer, so I can figure out if the offered flight is the non-stop Hawaiian Air flight or not. If possible, could we work this into the strategy?

[cchsu98]

Hello thereuare,

One quick clarification: from your previous reply, it sounds like I should base my bid on the HawaiianAir.com $458 price, not on the Hawaiian Air flight thru Travelocity"]Travelocity for $514 price. Is this correct?

And btw, Priceline DOES partner with Hawaiian Air- I read it on the "List of Partner Airlines". (Does this mean the HA $458 price is available to Priceline?)

Thanks,

Chee Chee

[thereuare]

Bidding strategies aren't created based upon a percentage off a specific rate as this is changing number for each market... we prefer to determine the maximum bid (this is based upon prevailing rates) and then determining a systematic strategy on how to get there. Therefore, it's not relevant (for the bidding strategy) if Hawaiian Air participates with Priceline or not, their rate is still the one you use to determine a bidding strategy since that is your "next best alternative".

So, given the Hawaiian Air rate of $458, how much would you need to save from that amount in order to still make an opaque purchase worthwhile? Not to worry, our strategy won't be to "bid that maximum amount", you'll seee how you can use re-bids to systematically increase your price along the way.

[cchsu98]

Hello Thereuare,

I got your last post. I realize that bidding strategies aren't based on percentage savings. That was just a helpful way for me to give structure to my thinking.

I understand that I need to determine my maximum bid. Before I do this, I want to clarify: might I end up getting the $458-regularly-priced HA flight since it is still available? If so, my max bid would be $375 + tax (hoping for a total cost of around $410).

Is there a way I can figure out the worst case scenario flight that I would get? This is what I did, but perhaps you know of a better way?

I looked at the other flights on Lowestfare.com to see what these worst cases might be. (It looks like they would be itineraries with 2 connections, taking up to 15 hrs to go from SFO to HNL.) If I ended up with an itinerary that took 15 hrs, I actually would not want it. I think the max flight time I could stand is the 9 hrs that some of the itineraries offer.

If the I end up with a 9 hr flight time, my max bid would be $337 + tax (= approx $376).

One more thing: I'm realizing from you posts that it seems like re-bidding will play an important role in this strategy. Is this true? Is this part of your strategy? (I didn't realize that one could re-bid since I have not made the bid yet).

Thanks for your help,

Chee Chee

[thereuare]

This is current at time of posting, taken from Priceline's Help section:

If you decide to Name Your Own Price

[cchsu98]

Hello Thereuare,

Yes, my maximum bid amount is $375. My target is for $375 + tax to equal around $415. (Of course, the lower we can get it, the better.)

My dream price would be to pay $337 + tax = $376 for the flight to Hawaii. (This was the transparent booking price on Orbitz for ATA about 3 weeks ago.)

Ok, I'm ready to bid. How do we do this?

-Chee Chee

ps - If you don't think $375 is a realistic price to get a 1 or 0 connection flight, please do let me know.

[thereuare]

Priceline offers three departure airports when select SFO-->HNL; when you go to the "name your own price" they offer departure airports of SFO, SJC, and OAK.

So do you first search of SFO-->HNL and when you get to the Name Your Own Price screen select SFO-->HNL and try to bid $325. If that is rejected close the browser and re-access priceline however you did previously.

This time start your search for SJC-->HNL. When you get to the Name your own price screen, only select SFO (so uncheck SJC if it is automatically checked) and try a bid for $350. If that is rejected close the browser and re-access priceline however you did previously.

This time start your search for OAK-->HNL. When you get to the Name Your Own Price screen, once again uncheck anything that may automatically be selected and only select SFO-->HNL as acceptable airports. Bid $375.

If the above fails and you want to try one last attempt, it looks like you can also get SFO to appear when searching for MRY-->HNL so you can repeat the process once again (or adjust your above bids accordingly, say $310/$340/$360/$375 or something similar).

Any questions feel free to ask.

Good Luck.

[cchsu98]

Hello Thereuare,

Thanks for the strategy. I will try it. =)

Btw, it seems that you tailored my strategy based on the number of airports that had flights going to my destination. In this case, since there were 3 airports, you divided up my bid increments into 3 bids that would cover the range of min and max range of prices I was willing to pay. And you also found another originating airport (MRY) that had SFO as an alternate airport AND also flew to my destination (HNL). Is this analysis correct?

Thanks again,

Chee Chee

[thereuare]

Essentially the airport options is what is used to determine the re-bids you have... in this case you have four options for departing airports, but only one for the destination airport. What is interesting is that the MRY option (the 4th airport) only appears in conjunction with some the other airports, but should work just the same since you can begin with that and then ultimately only select SFO-->HNL from there.

[cchsu98]

Hello Thereuare,

Well, I tried what you suggested. I searched for SFO>HNL, SJC>HNL, and OAK>HNL. Each time I made sure the departing airport I ultimately submitted was SFO. I bid $325, $350, and $375, respectively. Each bid was rejected. I have not done the MRY option yet b/c I wanted to save one try to think of a good price to bid.

After my $325, 350 and 375 bids were rejected, each time Priceline made a counter offer for a flight for $573. Q1. Is PL showing me this b/c its the lowest fare PL can get me on SFO>HNL?

Q2. Given the fact that my 325-375 bids were rejected and countered with $573, do you have any suggestions on what to make my last bid?

Also, although I realize that $458 + 20 is the lowest valid fare I can get from HawaiianAir.com, it does not look like this fare is available to Priceline. When I first enter my bid, PL checks it, sees that it is too low, and then tells me that the lowest published fare is $603, Hawaiian Airlines. PL says "You can expect to save up to 40% off this price ($603)." So, I think I should base my bid on $603.

For example, the $573 fare is exactly 5% off the $603 fare. (Those prices include taxes.) That's why I think it might be more useful to make a bid based on the fare that PL states is the lowest, not necessarily the fare that is the lowest out on the Internet, b/c I will have a more realistic chance of getting a fare based on $603. Q3. What do you think- should I be basing my bids on the lowest published fare that Priceline finds?

I'd appreciate your thoughts on this subject. And I will be sure to post the results of this process for others to learn from.

Thanks!

Chee Chee

[thereuare]

should I be basing my bids on the lowest published fare that Priceline finds?

I don't think so, and let's use a hotel example to explain why....

Let's assume that there are two hotels in a given area, one of them deals with Priceline (HotelA) and the other does not (HotelB)... and you're fine staying with either.

You can book the HotelB hotel directly for $100/nite, but HotelA (which deals with priceline) has a direct rate of $300. I always think that 50% off is a great deal, so should you bid $150 since that would be a great deal for the hotel that priceline deals with... never, since you can get an equivalent hotel that you are perfectly happy with for only $100.

This is why we always base bidding strategies based upon your next-best-alternative since that is what you'll ultimately be spending if not successful with the opaque suppliers.

I'm not surprised as your failure above, because currently the savings with the opaque airfare model just aren't there... overall the number of flights have decreased, there are fewer empty seats on airplanes, fuel prices are up, and it is only 5 days before your departure date. If an airline still has an empty seat which they really wanted to sell they would have already adjusted the price accordingly to sell it on their own. This isn't to say that users shouldn't try to bid for airfare, because they could be successful (especially on popular routes with LOTS of flights), but currently the bids required to be successful on most flights are very close to retail rates, so the trade-off of not choosing your own flight times is not worth the <little> savings.

Given your flight is only 5 days away, i wouldn't sit and think about this too long (or overanalyze it too much :) ), as you can easily see the Hawaiian Air price disappear as well! Also note that the Hawaiian Air flight gets into HNL early and departs at noon... would it be worthwhile to save $50 if your flight into HNL arrived late at nite and your departure from HNL was early in the morning... essentially cutting your vacation short (not to mention the wait time on a likely connection).

Ultimatley you have to decide what savings are worth it to you. I might still try bidding if my alternative was a connecting flight, but since your alternative is a non-stop flight with good flight times, i would probably just take the Hawaiian Air offer.

[BEAV]

I have not done the MRY option yet b/c I wanted to save one try to think of a good price to bid.

I discovered a couple of years ago that when you enter your starting city (in this case SFO, OAK, SJC or MRY) it does not have to be a city that has an airport. With this strategy, you have practically unlimited chances to rebid. For example, enter any of the following cities as your starting location:

Burlingame

San Mateo

Berkeley

Hayward

Palo Alto ... and so on and so forth.

Entering any Bay Area city will bring up SFO as a departure airport for you to select. Again, unlimited rebit opportunities rather than having to save MRY in your hip pocket as a "last resort".

After my $325, 350 and 375 bids were rejected, each time Priceline made a counter offer for a flight for $573. Q1. Is PL showing me this b/c its the lowest fare PL can get me on SFO>HNL?

Q2. Given the fact that my 325-375 bids were rejected and countered with $573, do you have any suggestions on what to make my last bid?

I just tried a ridiculously low bid of $250 to see what kind of counteroffer Priceline would come back with. The lowest counteroffer for your travel dates is $569. Given the fact flights with Hawaiian Air are selling for $554 today for your travel dates, it's pretty much pointless to bid this itinerary with Priceline.

Perhaps you've already purchased your tickets, but hope this info is helpful to you in the future. Have a great trip!