Priceline Hotel: San Francisco Bidding Strategy

[stonehands]

My wife and I are going to SF for the first time and would like to stay in a 4* hotel. I have no preference of USE or USW. Our dates are set, but we have no agenda yet. What do you suggest is the best bidding strategy?

[slruud]

Familiarize yourself with the FAQ's, especially those dealing with free rebids. It always helps to post some of the rates from the 4* hotels in the USE/USW areas, as well as checking Hotwire.

[thereuare]

Welcome to BetterBidding!

What is your maximum bid (per nite before fees and taxes) for this stay?

Please use these PRICELINE and HOTWIRE links to begin your travel purchases.

[stonehands]

Max would proably be about $180.

Thanks.

[stonehands]

So far I have made 7 escalating bids on Priceline, starting from USE at $96 to USE, Cathedral Hill, So. SF, Civic Center, Lomard, USW and FW at $140, with all being denied. I'll try again tomorrow. Thanks for the tips.

[Gallus50]

Rates should end up pretty low at that time, but you may have to be patient. In all likelihood, you won't have to go over $100. It's still very early to be bidding for December, though.

[Colfax]

I agree with Gallus50; you're bidding too high too early. I'd keep trying to $120 max about once a week for now.

[stonehands]

Still no luck!

[Colfax]

Since August, when this thread began, PRICELINE has revised the Downtown San Francisco zones. What used to be USW and USE is now four zones.

Can you update us with how high your most recent bid was and in which zones?

Are all four Downtown zones still equally acceptable to you, so that you'll want the least expensive 4* available in any Downtown zone? Or do you prefer one or two zones and want to bid to your limit in those zones first, before opening up to other zones?

[stonehands]

I have bid up to $171 for 4* in USE and USW, with 4 extra free zones. I have not yet bid in SOMA. Should I give it a try? This is not a business trip.

[thereuare]

In addition to the above three zones, there is also the Embarcadero zone to consider.

I'll leave it to others, and your own research, to suggest if these other zones would work well for a pleasure trip (i think they would, but others on the board know the area better than i do).

Once you learn more about these other areas and if you want to include them or not we'll revise the strategy accordingly.

Please use these PRICELINE and HOTWIRE links to begin your travel purchases.

PS- i'll also add that rates are currently VERY HIGH for these dates, do you have a back-up reservation anywhere? If so, where and how much. Is SPLITTING YOUR PRICELINE BID an option?

[Colfax]

SOMA-Moscone and Embarcadero are also popular areas very suitable for first time visitors. There's no reason not to include them in your bidding.

As thereuare mentioned rates are very high for your dates, with most 4* over $400/night. Sometimes we use Hotwire, where prices are displayed in advance, as a barometer of general availability and a guide for predicting Priceline rates. When HOTWIRE rates are high PRICELINE rates will be too.

Checking Dec 4-8, HOTWIRE only has two hotels in their four Downtown zones---a 4* in USE at $457 and a 3.5* in USW for $199. On a "normal" night we'd expect to see more like 10-15 hotels offered in the four downtown zones. The 3.5* appears to be the Rex Hotel, which is a Boutique property.

Your travel dates are Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. One busy night can cause your entire four-day bid to fail. Unfortunately the expensive nights for your stay are Friday and Saturday, right in the middle. Eliminating Thursday and Sunday nights from your bid Hotwire's inventory and pricing don't improve at all. It's still just the two hotels mentioned above.

Since your bidding limit is $180 and you've only bid to $171 in two zones, my suggestion is to bid to your $180 limit now in all four zones.

If that doesn't work your alternatives include 1) raising your limit for 4*, 2) trying for a 3.5*, 3) bidding for Fisherman's Wharf or 4) splitting your bid.

From a dollar standpoint you'll come out best by splitting your bid twice---bid Thursday alone, Friday and Saturday together, and Sunday alone. I realize few people want to switch hotels twice in four days but I'll mention it anyhow. Since Friday and Saturday cost more than Thursday and Sunday a bid that will be high enough to win Friday and Saturday will probably be an overbid for Thursday and Sunday.

[mykeyhope]

Wow!! Interesting that the prices are so much higher that weekend! I wonder what's going on then? As others have said, I usually get a nice 4* downtown hotel for less than $100/night, but obviously that only works during times when hotels are not all booked up!

[stonehands]

Thanks. Still no luck with $200+ bid in all 4 zones.

[Colfax]

I'm not aware of a big event in town that weekend. I think the hotels are anticipating crowds of out-of-town Union Square Christmas shoppers and they've priced their inventory optimistically. If reservations don't meet expectations we could see prices come down between now and December 4. I can't guarantee that will happen but it's a good possibility.

If you want to hold out for a 4* Downtown I think you can wait a while longer before bidding FW or 3.5*. I would try to $200 again on Friday, then again next Monday. Then if nothing comes through you can try one of the "Plan B"s. Otherwise try one of the Plan B's now.

If you decide to wait you should book a cancellable backup reservation now. Quikbook is one good source.

The HOTWIRE 4* in USE has dropped from $457 to $369 since yesterday. It's still the only 4* available though.

[thereuare]

You can send me a PM if you'd like this thread re-opened.