Priceline Hotel: 12/25-12/29 4* in strip area possible?

[dada]

Hi all, I need some advice here. Iam bidding Vegas hotel for my brother during 12/25 - 12/29 total 4 nights. He wants only 4* or above only in the strip area. I have searched most 4* hotel that may come up in PL.

12/25 - 12/28 rates are as follow:

Flamingo $75 95 95 90

Ballys $89 129 129 99

Treasure Island $99 129 129 89

MGM Grand $139.95 for all 4 nights

Mirage $129 for all 4 nights

I think of spliting into 2 or even 3 bids to avoid the peak rate for 12/26 & 12/27, I understand the that changing hotel is possible (I read the other thread about similar situation for thanksgiving)

I have bidded up to $80 for 5* and $60 for 4* with no luck. I want to know that is there a chance that I will get the hotel for my bidding price? If anyone knows, please reply and I greatly appreciate it. Thanks in advance.

dada

[thereuare]

If changing hotels is not an issue, check out QuickBook for the nite of the 25th... $24 for Harrahs!

Are you refering to bidding $80 for all 4 nites? If so, i'd say you have a chance, but if accepted, i think you'd be overbidding for the non-weekend nites. Doesn't hurt to try (except for the over-bidding aspect) as it won't affect your bidding later if you change the dates (the new dates won't be viewed as the same bid as the original and therefore won't lock you out for 72 hours)

I'd probably bid the Friday and Saturday nite first, then once a hotel is received, see if i could cheaply find the remaining nites at the same hotel. Even if you can only find a 'deal' for one of the other nites, you can bid the remaining nite and only have to risk changing hotels once.

If using re-bids, don't forget that 4* hotels can be upgraded to resort properties, so don't include any zones that don't offer 4* but do offer resorts.

[dada]

Hi thereuare, thanks for your reply. Sorry about that I just edited my original message b/c of some typos. So do u mean that bidding at $80 all 4 nights for 5* is too much? If it is, can you suggest a price? What about the price $60 that I bidded for 4*, do u think its reasonable? Thanks.

Thanks for the great deal for Harrahs.

dada

[thereuare]

I thought you were asking about $80 for a 4*. Getting a 5* for $80 including weekend nites is most likely not going to happen. The lowest we've seen the "V" come up is $79/nite and this is usually only available about a week or so before check-in date and very rarely for weekend nites (although it does occaisionally happen... but based upon the V's rates for your weekend in question i don't think it's likely).

You could try the 4* bid for $60, but again, if accepted, you run the risk of overbidding for the non-weekend rates (but no harm in trying as it doesn't lock you out of bidding again immediately for any other dates). I would probably take the $24 at Harrahs, bid for Friday and Saturday nite via Priceline.... then try to get a deal reserving my Priceline hotel for Sunday nite thru a 'traditional agent' (Expedia, Travelocity, Hotel Website, Quickbook, etc). If no deals available then i'd try bidding for the last nite. (this is all if i was traveling alone or with friends... no way my wife would be willing to move 3 times on a 4 nite stay! :) )

If you let me know how you want to split up the dates (if at all) i'll provide the bidding strategy i'd follow.

[dada]

lets say i am not willing to split up the bids...

heres what i want, (can you tell me if its possible, and % chance?)

1. 5* hotel at 85/night --- if rarely, what will be a good bid offer?

2. 4* for $70/night ---- if rarely, what will be a good bid offer?

thanks.

:)

[thereuare]

If you were to bid now for all 4 nites, my guess is that a 5* will likely take more than $150 (possibly significantly more than $150). For a 4*, a figure in the $80's is probably more realistic, but that's not to say that you won't be successful at less. This bid is hard to gauge because your stay encompasses dates with multiple rates.

To give a number as to how likely you are to be successful isn't very useful (as my statistics professor used to say, "for you it's either going to be 0 or 1"). I'd sooner give a strategy based upon your parameters, which i will do here. There is no harm in trying, and if you're rejected, you can choose to raise your limit and try again in 72 hours. Based upon the current info you've supplied:

For 5* i'd just bid $85 right off the bat, because at this point i don't think you'll be successful.

For 4* you have 5 re-bids available (make sure you understand re-bidding and/or confirm your re-bid zones before bidding):

Bid $50, if rejected add re-bid zone and

Bid $55, if rejected add re-bid zone and

Bid $60, if rejected add re-bid zone and

Bid $65, if rejected add re-bid zone and

Bid $68, if rejected add re-bid zone and

Bid $70.

Feel free to ask any questions you may have regarding the above approach.

PS- i think the Flamingo is considered to be 3* by Priceline, not 4*

[dada]

hello,

which free rebid zone would you add if i am will stick with 4* that will be VERY safe at priceline? (I read from other post at other forum that some ppl got stuck with hotels else where than the strip)

and regards to the $24 harrah stay on 12/25...i am planning on getting that one, then bid for 12/26 - 12/28 (3 nights) for a 4* hotel...since friday are usually cheaper on the strip, do you think i should add a few bucks to my bid offer if i am bidding for 12/26 - 12/28?

and last question, i have never use quikbooks before...when do you think that $24 for harrahs deal will expire? A few weeks? days??

thanks!

[thereuare]

You must be comfortable getting a hotel anywhere within Priceline's shaded region of 'the strip' (which may include properties not directly on the strip... check out their map)

I don't understand what you are asking me about re-bidding. Im' heading out right now and will answer your other questions when i return, but in the meantime i woudl read this thread Re-Bidding Explained.

[dada]

hello,

nevermind about the rebid zone question...i had a brain fart. :)

however, if you can answer the other questions...its greatly appreciated.

thanks!

[thereuare]

Regarding the QuickBook deal, i have no idea how long it will last. If your plans are not yet firm, i would book directly with the hotel. If you go to Harrah's website and click on hot DEALS you will see a $28/nite rate listed for the 25th which i believe is cancellable up to 3 days before arrival (you have to click on hot DEALS first, otherwise you will be given a MUCH higher rate). You can keep that until your plans are firm and then if you want to save the extra $4 you can book with QuickBook and then cancel your direct reservation with the hotel.

Regarding raising your bid a few dollars, when bidding on Priceline, it appears that Priceline must have access to inventory for each night at your bid rate or lower, for your bid to be accepted. So for example, if you are bidding for 2 nites and Priceline's rate is $50 for the first night and $100 for the second night... you're bid for $75/night will NOT be accepted. So raising your bid a few dollars figuring it will 'average' out will not necessarily work to your advantage and why an over-bid is possible for the non-weekend nite.

Since you have time i would probably use the following bid sequence: $50, $55, $60, $65, $70, $75. If that is rejected i would wait 72 hours and start at $60, $65, $70, $75, $80, $85 and continue to repeat the process every 3 days until you start to get to your maximum bid amount (at which point you'll need to re-evaluate if you want to wait and continue to see if availability opens up, raise your bid limit, split the bid, lower your quality level, etc).

Feel free to ask questions regarding any of the above and keep us up to date regarding your success/failure.

[dada]

hello!

thanks for the advice.

securing the 12/25 day for harrahs thru harrahs website is a good idea..

however, i went to harrahs website, clicked on hot deals....they didnt list 12/25 for $28...they listed 12/24 for $29..

can you provide the link? i cannot find it!

thanks!

[thereuare]

It is indeed $29, my mistake... still a great rate and worth putting on hold now since it's cancellable (i'd call them to double check the cancellability, but last time i reserved a hot DEAL thru their website it was fully cancellable up to 3 days before arrival).

[dada]

Hi!

my stay starts on December 25th (Thursday), so, i will be SLEEPING at harrahs on Thursday night...

From what i see, their $29 promotion ends on 12/24 (WEDNESDAY) and thus, i believe i cannot get it......are you looking at a different page?

Thanks!

[thereuare]

It's no longer there, but i'm fairly certain it was yesterday.

QuickBook still lists it at $24, so if you're plans are pretty set, i would book thru them now. Quickbook does charge a cancellation fee, although i'm not sure what it is; but your risk is pretty much capped at $24 since that'll be your total cost.

[dada]

hi,

if hotwire is displaying

155, 167, and 108 for 12/26, 12/27, and 12/28 for a 4.5* hotel on hotwire.

Would you think I can get a winning bid of $75 - $80 at priceline comparing that, the average for those 3 days on hotwire are $143.33?

If not, at what average price for a 4.5* hotel on hotwire, would means a better chance to get a 4* hotel (MGM, Mirage, Ballys..etc) on priceline?

(P.S. I am assuming a 4.5* are equivalent to a 4* on priceline...just a guess)

Thanks!

[thereuare]

When bidding on Priceline, it appears that Priceline must have access to inventory for each night at your bid rate or lower, for your bid to be accepted.

If you are bidding for 2 nites, and Priceline's rate is $50 for the first night and $100 for the second night... you're bid for $75/night will NOT be accepted.

The above is taken from THIS POST and indicates that averaging your nightly rate, like you are doing, is not how the process works. Also, you're implying that Priceline will be nearly half of Hotwire's price. While it's certainly possible and Priceline often has rates less than half of the hotel's website rate, I don't think it's a good assumption to think that you can beat Hotwire's price by that much.

I really think you're over analyzing this too much, why don't you try starting with the strategy given above and take it from there? There is no set formula for success, and that is why we recommend strategies which include re-bids and gradually increasing prices each time. Often our approaches work the first time out, sometimes they don't, and we use that information (rejected bids and possibly counter-offers that result) to adjust the strategy.

You have plent of time to begin bidding now and adjust your strategy every 72 hour period; why are you hesitant to move forward without figuring out for certain what will work before you try it? If you're comfortable with the prices you bid, the worst that can happen is you'll get rejected and have to try again.

[dada]

Hello,

Thank you for the advice.

To be completely honest with you. I am planning on using the strategy given above. However, I just started using that strategy yesterday, and now i am in the 3 days probation period, after about 50+ more hours, i will be able to proceed with a higher price and use the rebid method again.

The reason why I am asking for the assumption is b/c since I cannot do anything within these 2 days, all i can do is make some assumptions, take some guesses, and ask for more advice.

I did not buy the Harrah's yet. I have been bidding on 12/26 - 12/29 yesterday, my highest bid offer was $77 for the above date. No luck however.

The reason why i didnt buy the $24 harrahs is...I dont know, I am afraid that if some 4 night package pop up all of a sudden, I can get it, without switching hotel. I am pretty reluctant to change hotel during my stay. However, with the $24 as a price for a 3* hotel, it is really hard to let it go. That is the reason why I want to get something firm from PL first, (with the date of 12/26 - 12/29), then i will buy the $24 harrahs. Of course, everytime when I bid at PL, iwill go check at quikbook and grabbed the room and hold it myself for 20 minutes, then proceed with the PL bidding.

if you have any better thoughts, please let me know.

By the way, this is Dada's brother....and Dada informed me last night, Not to mess around with her username, and she TOLD me not to ask stupid questions...so, dont flame her. :)

Thanks,

Tak -> my name.

[dada]

and one more question,

from quikbook.com, it says if i check in on 12/25, i can get a FUNBOOK value at $350...Will you konw what type of coupons are in there?

To narrow down the answer to that question, does it have 2 in 1 coupons for the jubilee and the V show?

and if i am using a 2in1 coupon, how do i reserve seats for those shows? Do I call them and tell them? (b/c if i buy online, i will have to pay for tickets i am buying...)

thanks,

Tak

[thereuare]

By the way, this is Dada's brother....and Dada informed me last night, Not to mess around with her username, and she TOLD me not to ask stupid questions...so, dont flame her.  :)

:) Your questions weren't stupid, you just didn't state that you had already tried any of the above and i didn't understand what you were driving at. Was your highest bid of $77 for a 4*? What price points did you use before that?

Regarding the coupon, there are TONS of coupons all over Vegas... some worthwhile, so not so. If you want to know the exact contents i'd call the hotel as they change frequently. Another option is to check out this website: BillHere which lists most of the current coupons available throughout Vegas. He'll mail you whatever you want for a small handling fee, but the fee can add up if you throw in a lot of coupons, so stick with the meaningful ones like "Buy 1 Get 1 Free" and "Two for One" rather than the coupons for a 75 cent hot dog (which may normally cost .99).

[dada]

hello,

Below is what I did at PL yesterday, (having friends bid for me after my bids were rejected)

I tried to bid 3 different time periods, at 1PM, 4PM, and 8PM

1PM - 4*

50 55 60 65 70 75

4PM - 4*

50 55 60 65 70 75

8PM - 4*

50 55 60 65 70 77

All of the above is a no go, PL kept on giving me that LowestFare.com page, asking me to go buy it from lowestFare.com, of course, i didnt do that! :)

Do you think I should start with 55 as my starting point 2 days later?

and think about this scenario,

at 1PM, i tried with these bids, 50 55 60 65 70 75 -- got rejected

at 1:20PM (using a different account), if i tried with the same bid sequence, 50 55 60 65 70 75 -- get rejected again.

Does that mean, no matter at 1:30PM or 2PM, (my point is, shortly after you get rejected), if they rejected you 20 minutes ago, and if you use the same bid sequence with a different account, they will reject you again....b/c during that time period (I assume its 2-4 hours, just my guess), they most likely will not take that amount..

Do you think this analysis holds true?

If you think I am overthinking about this whole bidding with PL thing...forgive me, I am a guy that likes to "beat the system" with my own knowledge...just like I like to review numbers on lottery or dice table and calculate the possibilities what are the better odds of winning..etc...

anyway, i look forward to your answers!

Thanks,

Tak

[thereuare]

Before you play any game you must first understand the rules and how the game is played. I think your current approach is going to cause you much frustration and waste a lot of time. Priceline is not actually approaching every hotel with your bid and asking them to accept it. The simple version: a rate is loaded into the system by each hotel and if your bid is equal to or higher than the loaded rate then you will win your hotel. So making the same bid every few hours is going to be relatively futile. Yes, when rates change it has to occur at some point in time, but the chances that they change between the 3 hours of your last bid are not likely. Prices can change at any time, but they don't change all that frequently (as in multiple times per day).

I completely understand your desire to 'beat the system', as that's the motivating factor of a website such as this and why we're all here... we want the best rate possible and not over-bid.

You do realize that if you're at a roulette table in Vegas and the number 12 comes out six times in a row... the odds of the number 12 coming out on the next spin is still 1 in 38. The same applies to the craps table... if the number 2 comes out six times in a row, the chances of 2 coming out on the next roll is still 1 in 36. Rolls of the dice, spins of the wheel, the picking of lottery numbers, etc are all independent events, and the outcome of todays results in no way affect the outcome of future results. Again, it's a matter of understanding the rules before playing any game :)

Once your sister sees this thread she may insist you get your own screenname (sorry, just trying to stir up a little sibling rivalry :) )

[dada]

Hello,

It is correct that the odds will be the same even tho a 12 comes out six times in a roulette table. However, i go by the statistics. Statistics shows in a 1000 times when you flip a coin, you will get certain sides more than the other one.

In the same token, using the same concept in statistics, it might work with the dice game in vegas. I am not trying to say it WILL work. I believe that depends on the dealer, on the way he/she throw the container...but it might help...atleast i know for one thing, if you are not confident in winning, the odds of winning will be so much lower....thats what I learn from psychology back in College....

:)

Tak

[cheezhead]

Just did a quick hotwire check for your dates 12/26-12/29 and this is what it showed:

12/26 only 4.5* (MGM Grand) $155 5*V nothing

12/27 only 4.5* (MGM Grand) $165 5* V $261

12/28 only 4.5* (MGM Grand) $111 5* V $180

12/26-12/29 4.5* $147 and 5*V nothing

First of all, if hotwire has no 5* for 12/26, priceline may not have any availability for that date either. You are quite possibly bidding this too early and you seem to be bidding too low. Good luck!

[dada]

hi,

thanks for the info, cheezhead.

Another question, if i will be going to vegas downtown, different casinos...do you think i should rent a car? I am giong with my wife...so its 2 of us only.

I know the cab rate from hotel to the strip is about 13 dollars...So I will need to spent 26 + tips just for the ride from hotel to the strip. What about other kinds of transportation in the vegas area? going to downtown, going from 1 casino to another casino? Do i need to take a cab? (Remember, i am going with my wife, thats 2x transportation fee if taking a bus)

and i heard that there is a new vegas, and a old vegas...where are they? i cannot find it on the map...whats the street/town called?

If the cost of rental car for 4 days will cost as much as me taking the bus / cab, i would rather go for rental car...

and last question...do you think its possible to get a economy car during my stay for about 10/day at PL?? I know i can get it for $17.95 at PL, cheapest i found so far...

Thanks!

tak

[thereuare]

Center Strip to Downtown is closer to $16, if your down by the Four Corners, it's closer to $22. Local bus is about $2.50/pp, if you catch the express bus it only makes 4 stops on the way downtown after you pass Treaure Island. Once downtown, you won't need a car to get from hotel to another. The express bus is my prefered mode of transporation to downtown.

New Vegas is the strip, Old Vegas is downtown.

do you think its possible to get a economy car during my stay for about 10/day at PL?? I know i can get it for $17.95 at PL, cheapest i found so far

No, i don't think it's possible (and proof-read your posts :) )