Priceline Hotel: 4* Las Vegas (Strip Vicinity South) Mandalay Bay Resort And Casino

[Rick Von Sloneker]

Tried at $104, $105, $107, $109, all rejected of course. Winning bid was $111.

 

I tried the week before and $105 was enough to get a winning bid.

 

Booking made September 15, 2014.

 

This is Halloween Weekend, Thursday night through Sunday morning.

[Rick Von Sloneker]

My question: if a hotel has the cheapest Best Available Rate (BAR) for a given stay, what are the odds you'll get it as your Priceline NYOP winning bid? How much of an indicator is it that a hotel is the cheapest in its class and area?

 

Let's assume that your NYOP bid is close to the lowest bid that will be accepted (i.e. if the minimum winning bid is $100, you are not putting in $150 or $200, but rather $100 or $102).

 

Hotel prices, especially in Las Vegas where I travel to, fluctuate all the time. One day, Hotel A is the cheapest, while another day, Hotel B is. While I imagine the fluctuation in pricing is not as great on NYOP, I'm more concerned about the ORDER of hotels in the magnitude of winning bids that they accept. 

 

Another way to put the question is how much does the NYOP discount vary between hotels? If NYOP was always say, 33%, across hotels, then the cheapest hotel would always be the winning bid. I know this is not the case, that each hotel chooses how much to discount its rooms for NYOP.

 

Here is a schedule of bids:

 

Day 1: $104 $105 winning bid, unknown hotel

Day 2: $104 $105 $107 $109 $111 winning bid, Mandalay

Day 3: $100 $109 $111, $114 winning bid, unknown hotel

 

Cheapest hotels

 

Day 1: Mandalay Bay, $158

Day 2: Mandalay Bay, $165

Day 3: Monte Carlo, $147. NY NY, $162. (Mandalay Bay is $170 on this day)

 

We can already see that on Day 1 and Day 2, Mandalay Bay offered a 33-34% discount for a NYOP room (I assume that on Day 1, Mandalay Bay would have won, given that I won it later and that other hotels at the time were considerably more expensive, just as they were on Day 2). 

 

On Day 3 however, putting in a bid that would yield at the very least a 24% discount (i.e. comparing the Priceline bid to the cheapest hotel currently, the Monte Carlo - (147-111)/147 = 26%) was not sufficient. The next cheapest hotel is NY NY, and were they to accept the bid, it would be at a 31.5% discount, identical to the one Mandalay offered.

 

We can see that winning bids fluctuate somewhat with when a hotel is booked. Even though the cheapest room was available on Day 3 (today actually), the cheapest winning bid, among the days for which bids were made, was on Day 1. We also see that Mandalay Bay's discounts off the BAR are significantly higher, at 33%, as compared to Monte Carlo and NY NY, who offer discounts of, at most, 24% and ~30% respectively. That $114 bid on Day 3 could be Mandalay again, if Mandalay is still accepting ~33% discounts.

 

Another question - does a given hotel consistently have the same NYOP % discount over time? Eg, does Mandalay Bay usually offer a 33% discount? Oddly enough, Mandalay Bay, NYNY and Monte Carlo are all owned by the same company, MGM, yet they differ on their use of Priceline NYOP discounting. Another interesting thing is that in the period surveyed, Mandalay started with a low BAR and then increased it over time, while all the other hotels in the sample did the opposite. Perhaps Mandalay's strategy is heavier discounting earlier to get more prepaid bookings, while the other hotels discount less in the hopes of getting more travelers staying at BAR rates, and discounting as time goes on.

 

It would be interesting to track winning NYOP bids and compare them to contemporaneous BAR rates for that hotel, and see what each hotel's discount rates are over time, and even the discount rate for a given stay like mine, and how that discount varies over time. If a hotel's discount rate were consistent across stays and time, you could potentially use NYOP and figure out what hotel you might get, if the price differences between hotels were big enough.

 

Conclusions:

1. Some hotels discount NYOP rooms proportionally (percentage wise) more than others. 

2. The time when the BAR is lowest for a group of hotels is not necessarily when the NYOP rate is cheapest, because different hotels discount NYOP varying amounts.

3. Thus, when the BAR is lowest is not necessarily the cheapest time to book via NYOP.

4. Some hotels will set room rates high and lower them over time, and others will set them lower initially, and then raise them over time.

 

 

 

Backstory:

 

I just booked a stay in Vegas ( http://www.betterbidding.com/index.php?showtopic=201296 ). When I booked my stay, the hotel I won, Mandalay Bay, was the cheapest in its category of four star South Vegas Strip hotels if you looked reservation prices on the regular open websites like Kayak and such. The next most expensive hotel was $15 higher, or 9% higher.

 

Now, it is no longer the cheapest hotel, when you view their open reservations rate - now, Monte Carlo is 14% less than Mandalay, and the MGM and NY-NY either are or were cheaper than Mandalay.

[thereuare]

Welcome to BetterBidding!

Congratulations on your success and thank you for sharing your win with the board.

There is little correlation between the least expensive hotel in the zone and the hotel you will receive when bidding on PRICELINE, assuming the price difference is not that much. In order words if there are only two hotels in a zone and one is priced at $100/nite and the other $300/nite, then yes, the $100 hotel is more likely... if one hotel is $135 and the other $150, you will not necessarily win the lesser priced property.

Also, the amount of discount differs from one hotel to the next, as well as if the hotel is experiencing low/high demand for the given nites. Even though hotel rates (and margins) are higher during high demand dates, hotels are likely to offer a less discount (even though margins are higher) since they are in a more powerful position with less inventory available.

Hope this answers your question(s) above. You may also be interested in this thread which discusses hotel selection in a bit more detail: Don't Bid Higher for a Specific Hotel.

Please use the PRICELINE and HOTWIRE links on the board to begin your travel purchases.

Enjoy your upcoming stay... and good luck in Vegas!

[Rick Von Sloneker]

Hey, thanks for your response. That thread was interesting, though it was approaching the issue differently.

 

For right now, my basic conclusion is that MB will accept a 33% discount through NYOP, while Monte Carlo won't even accept a 25% discount.

 

In any case, I'm thinking for my next trip, I'm going to book the Flamingo for the location, the party vibe and the cheap rates.

[thereuare]

For right now, my basic conclusion is that MB will accept a 33% discount through NYOP, while Monte Carlo won't even accept a 25% discount.

And for some other set of dates you may find the MB sold-out, not willing to discount more than 10%, or even a 50% discount... whereas the Monte Carlo you may see the same, more, or less discounting than you're currently seeing; and even if you do see a pattern, wait 4 months when it's low season in Vegas and you'll likely see an entirely new set of 'rules' that each property seems to be following. The bottomline is that there are just too many variables involved (many of which you'll never be privy to, in order to make the conclusions you're seeking. For example you'll never know how many rooms are booked at a hotel on any given nite. A hotel may discount 50% when they are 75% full and only 20% when they are 90% full... even if you discover this pattern you'll be left wondering why they discount 50% on some dates and only 20% on other dates.

In any case, I'm thinking for my next trip, I'm going to book the Flamingo for the location, the party vibe and the cheap rates.

It would be appreciated if you used our sister site MAPS and HOTELS.com for your non-opaque bookings (or the links in our Support Page when available)

Thanks.